BCV projects single-digit inflation starting in May and consolidates exchange market stability

Published at: 04/05/2026 08:54 PM

This Monday, May 4th, the president of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), Luis Pérez, announced that, after a sustained downturn in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Venezuela is projected to enter a phase of single-digit inflation starting next May.

During his speech on the program De Frente con la Noticia, broadcast by Venezolana de Televisión, he pointed out that this milestone would mark the country's return to levels of price stability not seen in years, strengthening purchasing power and economic predictability.

Pérez stressed that the stabilization of the exchange market has been the fundamental anchor for this achievement. Thanks to a plan that contemplates an exchange intervention of more than 1,350 million dollars for the month of May, the issuing entity guarantees the fluidity and lubrication necessary for the national productive apparatus.

In this regard, he argued that “when we compare equal periods from January to April of 2025 with January to April of 2026, we are already seeing a significant improvement in 2026. That is, almost $4 billion in this third of 2026 against $3 billion in 2025, and we are sure that there will be much more income in the second half of the year.”

“What this tells us is that the foreign exchange market, every time it behaves like this, is growing more or less 6.7.8%, which is what we have had in recent years. It represents exchange rate stability and therefore a slowdown in inflation. So by the end of 2026 we can expect a figure similar to what we had in 2024. God allow it to be more, but the number for now speaks of a similar figure,” he said.

He also stressed that Venezuela is positioned as the fastest growing economy in Latin America by the year 2026. He cited projections from international organizations that confirm this trend:

ECLAC: Estimated growth of 6.5%.

United Nations (UNDP): Expects an increase in GDP of 7.4%.

IMF: Projects growth of 4% by 2026 and up to 6% by 2027.

“We are leading economic growth in the region. This is not an isolated estimate, it is a reality that has been happening in recent years and that will be consolidated with an expansion cycle that could last up to a decade,” he said.

Regarding the behavior of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026, he noted that despite external challenges and the naval blockade that temporarily affected oil commercialization in January, non-oil activity grew strongly enough to keep the national GDP in positive territory.

“Oil production is decreasing and the phenomenon that occurs here is that non-oil production grows enough, even when oil production decreases, to ensure that GDP in the first quarter is positive. This does not mean that we are no longer dependent on oil production or that we are freed from being an oil country, but it does mean that we are growing enough beyond oil to defend our economy and that even under the worst circumstances we were able to grow economically,” he explained.

He added that “it's a powerful sign that we are growing beyond oil to defend our economy. Even under the worst circumstances of the siege, the non-oil sector stood up for the country.”

He confirmed that Venezuela is the most attractive investment destination in Latin America. “Venezuela is the most important investment destination in all of Latin America,” he said, adding that the national territory offers even better conditions than those of powers such as the United States and Canada for the development of foreign capital. “I would dare to say all over America,” he said.

He highlighted the case of companies such as Chevron, which have maintained their operations recognizing the country's potential, and announced that the national financial system is being strengthened under international transparency standards to receive the flow of foreign capital expected in the second half of the year.

He also stressed that after normalization is established, he estimates there will be a period of stability and growth, “which with very good planning, as President Delcy had since 2020, can last up to a decade. Look then, we have exchange rate stability, a slowdown in inflation and also the diversification of the Venezuelan economy, which is not only oil,” he said.