Financial analyst highlights progressive decline in inflation in the country

Published at: 08/06/2026 09:02 PM

There is a marked downward trend in inflation in Venezuela, from February to May of 2026, with a record of 6.3% in May, the lowest of the year, said financial expert José Ignacio Guarino, in the program De Frente con La Noticia, broadcast by Venezolana de Televisión (VTV).

“It is the lowest in recent months; this can and should be analyzed as a victory in macroeconomic policy (...) it is an achievement that must be celebrated in Venezuela, but it is an extremely high inflation rate for any country in the world,” he said in his first evaluations.

By showing statistical sheets whose source is the accounting firm Freites, Montañez, Carreira and associates, the task now is to explain that inflation is also affected by the exchange rate.

Exchange Rate Vs Inflation

In the first sheet, the Exchange Rate Variation (VTC) versus Inflation date, in 2023 the differential was practically 10%. In May 2024, it registered a significant reduction with 37% (VTC) compared to 59% (inflation). But in May 2025, the VTC was 166.4% and inflation: 152.9%. “Then we can see that, that many times some experts said that there is no inflation in dollars, but we see that there is, because at the end of the day devaluation is inflation and its definition is the loss of purchasing power.”

He explained that, on the subject of currencies in Venezuela, it is very important that there are companies right now that don't have much access to them, but they have international commitments to pay. “This causes your cash flow to have a barefoot and that barefoot also impacts inflation and also impacts devaluation, because the most expensive asset is the one that is the scarce asset.”

In this context, he expressed his conviction that all sectors must fight for ever greater foreign exchange earnings in Venezuela. “Not only because of the oil sector, which is obviously the most important in our country, but because the non-oil sector is getting stronger, step by step, but at a fast pace, that grew in the last data we have.”

A lot to do

He commented that when you look at these gross and official data, they indicate that there is still a lot to do in the national economy, although Venezuelan citizens have good and positive expectations for an improvement in everyone's quality of life.

The expert considered that the National Executive, with these calculations, surely has them in its assessments and multiple analyses. “we have to see how far it can be narrowed so that this effect is less and less pernicious.”

Finally, he said that so far in 2026, the exchange rate variation is around 84% and inflation is around 102%.

“All multilateral bodies have said that this year we will have three-digit inflation, in addition to the fact that, well, we have to start seeing what happens in this second half of the year, with all this news, all the investment flows that can reach Venezuela and that must reach Venezuela, because that's what it does is move the productive apparatus: without productivity there is inflation, with productivity, inflation goes down.”

Mazo News Team