Trump and the Doctrine of Unpredictability

Published at: 06/02/2026 05:00 PM

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has adopted in his administration the so-called Doctrine of Unpredictability or, as others know it, the Theory of the Madman; a strategy which consists of making the other party believe that, as a leader, they are unpredictable and capable of making extreme decisions without foreseeing the consequences. The objective is to sow fear and make opponents prefer to give in rather than risk what the madman might do.

The origin of this theory dates back to the term of Richard Nixon, who was president of the United States between 1969 and 1974. During this period, the republican politician always showed erratic behavior when making decisions with international repercussions . With this, he sought to make his adversaries think that the American response to his provocations would be unpredictable, and could even involve the use of nuclear weapons.

Regarding this, journalist Marta Gallardo, of the Spanish newspaper La Razón , in an article published in February 2025, explained that “currently, Donald Trump would be implementing this strategy, but using tariffs as a deterrent. Since coming to power, the US president has demonstrated this type of behavior, threatening Colombia, Canada and Mexico, among others, with tariffs of up to 25% if they did not meet his requirements to receive deported migrants, or to increase border control, among other aspects.”

Peter Trubowitz, professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, also commented that “it is a pattern that is emerging: the most predictable thing about Trump is his unpredictability: he changes his mind, he contradicts himself, he is inconsistent and he formed a highly centralized policy design team and that makes decisions more dependent on your personality, your preferences and your temperament.”

Political scientists call this the “Madman Theory”, in which a world leader seeks to convince his adversary that he is temperamentally capable of anything, to extract concessions. The way it is used becomes a form of extortion and Trump is convinced that it is bearing fruit, positioning US allies where he wants them.

Trump began his second term embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin and attacking U.S. allies. He also insulted Canada by saying that it should become the 51st state, announced that he was prepared to consider using military force to annex Greenland, which is an autonomous territory of Denmark and an ally of his country, expressed that he should regain possession and control of the Panama Canal and, recently, we saw how he bombed Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro.

Last year in Munich, Germany, Vice President JD Vance stated that the US would no longer be the guarantor of Europe's security. That threw back 80 years of transatlantic solidarity; in this regard, Professor Trubowitz commented, “what Trump did was create serious doubts and questions about the credibility of US international commitments.”

Professor Trubowitz remarked that “whatever understanding these European countries have with the United States on security, economy or other issues, is now subject to negotiation on short notice. My thinking is that most people in Trump's orbit believe that unpredictability is a good thing, because it allows him to apply the weight of his country to make the most profit... That's one of the lessons of having done business in the real estate world.”

Regarding the application of this theory, Michael Desch, professor of International Relations at the University of Notre Dame, commented that it is the same behavior as Nixon and explained that “at one point, he told his National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger: 'you should tell the negotiators North Vietnamese that Nixon is a madman and that you don't know what he's going to do, so it would be better to reach an agreement before things really go crazy,” and added: “That's the Madman Theory.”

Also, the professor of Politics at University College London , Julie Norman, agrees that there is now a Doctrine of Unpredictability: “It's very difficult to know what is coming day by day. And that was always Trump's strategy, people won't want to go into business with the United States if they don't trust negotiations, if they're not sure that it will support them on defense and security issues.”

According to Mohsen Milani, professor of Politics at the University of South Florida, “Trump is trying to consolidate American power in the global order, it is very likely that the order established after the Second World War will change. He wants to consolidate the position of the United States in that order because China is challenging it, he is not a traditional negotiator, his style does not follow the diplomatic rules or the expected protocols, he is an entrepreneur who transferred his business strategy to politics using methods of pressure, threats and the good dose of unpredictability that characterizes him.”

Already recognizing the danger posed by the attitude of the US president, a text entitled Lessons for dealing with Trump was written by journalist Ian Bremmer, one of the most prominent geopolitical risk analysts in the world, he explained that “one should not fall into the threat game: One of Trump's favorite resources is to launch extreme threats to start of a negotiation. This is done to create a climate of urgency and to force the other party to react quickly. We saw this with his handling of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada; when he threatened to withdraw from the agreement without obtaining better conditions, he has also done so with China, the European Union and even with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (NATO)”.

The analyst added that “it is essential to identify which aspects are non-negotiable and which can be ceded without compromising fundamental interests. When conflict is unavoidable, proactively offering concessions in less critical areas can be an effective strategy. Allowing him a quick symbolic victory is often preferable to protracted tense negotiations.”

Trump is a master of marketing. He knows that a negotiation is not only being waged at the table but also in public opinion, he constantly seeks to project the image that he is winning, even if in reality the agreements are less advantageous than they seem, he then needs to control public perception.

Another pillar of their strategy is to make the other party appear to be the most in need of the agreement. If a country or company shows urgency to close a deal, it will use it to obtain more concessions. The key then is not to show desperation, to act with patience and to be willing to withdraw from the negotiation if necessary. An example of this was the summit with North Korea in Hanoi in 2019 when Trump left the table to see that he was not getting what he wanted. That same strategy can be applied against you.

Although Trump projects the image of someone willing to go to the last consequences, in most cases he seeks a symbolic victory rather than a real confrontation. The times he has faced opponents who have not given in quickly, he has ended up renegotiating or lowering the tone of his speech.

A successful strategy is to build alliances and negotiate as a block before Trump, who prefers to negotiate bilaterally because it gives him more control and, if he faces a single opponent, he can apply his style of pressure without greater resistance. But when it encounters blocks joined together, it loses room for maneuver. This is the best strategy for countries or companies, to join other actors with similar interests, such as tariffs.

As a result of his Unpredictability Doctrine, the president has managed to get away with it, however, experts point out that it also involves considerable risks and miscalculations, since the US is becoming a partner that cannot be trusted.

AMELYREN BASABE/Mazo News Team