OPEC+ will increase its share of the oil market to 52% in 2050

Published at: 11/07/2025 10:43 PM

The OPEC+ or OPEC PLUS alliance , led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, expects to increase its share of the global oil market to 52% in 2050, from 48% last year, due to a stagnation in rival supplies and a solid sustained increase in the consumption of 'black gold', reported the SWI website.

He points out that this was announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its annual report on the long-term prospects of the sector, published this Thursday in Vienna.

The combined production of the twelve members of OPEC and its ten allied petrostates will rise to 64.1 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2050, 30.5% (15 mbd) more than in 2024, predicts the report entitled 'World Oil Market Outlook 2025' (WOO 2025).

In the medium term, the group expects that the rival supply, that is, that coming from outside the alliance, will add an additional 5.7 mbd to the market, thus increasing its total supplies from 53.3 in 2024 to 59 mbd in 2030.

“The United States is expected to drive this growth, with a contribution of 1.4 mbd, or around 25%, followed by Brazil (+1.1 mbd), Qatar and Canada (each +0.5 mbd), Argentina (+0.3 mbd) and others,” say analysts at the Vienna-based organization.

OPEC experts explain that “shale oil remains the key element that underpins the increase in US production”, which, however, will peak in 2030, before starting to decline.

All supplies from outside OPEC+ are expected to reach a peak of “less than 60 mbd” a few years later, towards the middle of the next decade, to be maintained until 2050, “on a plateau just below that level”.

According to OPEC, long-term growth (up to 2050) in oil supply outside OPEC+ will stagnate at around 59 mbd, as expected increases only in Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and in some other countries with smaller increases, will be offset by decreases in other producing regions.

Founded in 1960 in Baghdad, OPEC is currently comprised of twelve countries. In 2016, after realizing that it could not stop the sharp drop in oil prices that had begun in 2014 due to the US shale oil boom, it agreed to an agreement with ten other oil producers to reinforce its influence.

The expanded group, known as OPEC+, maintains several cuts in its production in force, adopted to support barrel prices, although since April it has partially reopened its spikes in order to progressively undo part of what was cut and thus recover some of the market share it has lost with its strategy of limiting pumping.

OPEC partners Venezuela, Iran and Libya are exempt from these commitments due to involuntary limitations on their extractions caused by various reasons, such as sanctions and armed conflicts.

Mazo News Team